Data Update (November 18-25)

November on track to be least violent week by far, as violence drops to record levels; but stability is being tested in lead-up to 1yr anniversary of Assad's fall.

The overall level of violence across Syria this past week remained at all-time low levels, with a total of 16 deaths confirmed, 3 (19%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance. That means that the 13 non-UXO deaths recorded across Syria last week represented the second lowest number ever recorded after the 10 non-UXO deaths confirmed between November 4-11.

In fact, November has so far witnessed a significant decline in violence, with an average of 12.6 deaths per week, compared to a rate of 30.6 deaths per week between July and October (not including the major violence in Suwayda in mid-July). Between mid-March and June, the weekly average was 57 deaths per week. This marked decline in overall levels of violence in Syria offers cause for serious optimism — though the upcoming 1yr anniversary celebrations bring with them a risk of violence from those who seek to bring down Syria’s transition, and the country’s as-yet unresolved territorial issues (the SDF-held northeast and the Druze-majority governorate of Suwayda) continue to impose a potential dark cloud over Syria’s stabilization.

Analysis: