Data Update (December 30, 2025-January 6, 2026)
2026 begins with near-record low levels of violence, as vigilantism & UXO declines --but ISIS's threat remains acute & SDF tensions persist.
The overall level of violence in Syria last week dropped to near record low levels, with just 17 deaths confirmed across the country — 2 (12%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). Only two weeks over the past 13 months have seen lower levels of violence: the 16 deaths between November 25-December 2, 2025 and the 13 deaths between November 4-11, 2025.
All in all, looking back over 2025, the overall decline in the level of violence across Syria is clear, and an extremely important and under-acknowledged trend. From September 2025, deadly violence in Syria has tracked at a third of the level seen throughout the previous 9 months of the transition (December 2024 to August 2025). Much of this improvement was due to the transition of domestic security responsibility from the MOD to MOI, and the steps taken by the MOI to recruit locally; to fuse its activities with the political directorates at the provincial and district levels; and to the campaigns of MOI arrests targeting criminal entities involved in organized crime, terrorism, vigilantism and sectarian violence.
However, despite the significant progress in internal security and stability, Syria’s transition remains existentially challenged by the country’s two unresolved territorial challenges (the SDF-held northeast, and the Druze-majority governorate of Suwayda), the persistence of which also continue to fuel maximalist political demands by minority actors on the Coast. Despite months of intensive U.S. attempts at mediation, little practical progress has been made to resolve either of the northeast or Suwayda files. That creates conditions in which sudden explosions of violence on either front remain possible, if not increasingly likely — as ongoing violence in Aleppo today indicates.
Of the 15 non-UXO deaths last week, two thirds were caused by two things:
