Syria Weekly: Data

Syria Data Update (April 14-28, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 13:53:23 GMT

A total of 23 people were killed across Syria over the past 2 weeks — making this the second least violent fortnight in 15 years. Of the 23 deaths, 15 (or 65%) were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO) and the remaining 8 (39%) were the result of direct acts of violence.

As noted previously, the incidence of direct (i.e. non-UXO) violence in Syria has been on a sustained record low since early-March 2026, with all record lows from the past 15 years recorded in the last 8 weeks:

2 deaths (March 24-31)
3 deaths (April 14-21)
5 deaths (April 21-28)
6 deaths (March 3-10, April 7-14)
7 deaths (March 31-April 7 and March 10-17)
8 deaths (March 17-24)

For the past 2 weeks, several areas of analytical insight are worth highlighting:

Syria Data Update (April 7-14, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:06:03 GMT

A total of 16 violent deaths were recorded across Syria over the past week — 10 (63%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). The remaining 6 deaths were caused by direct acts of kinetic violence, making this week on par with the 2nd least violent week in Syria in 15 years, with all record lows recorded in the past 6 weeks:

2 deaths (March 24-31)
6 deaths (March 3-10, April 7-14)
7 deaths (March 31-April 7 and March 10-17)
8 deaths (March 17-24)

As was the case with last week’s data, this week further underlines two consistent trends emerging from Syria Weekly data in 2026, that while the overall level of deadly violence in Syria has declined significantly since mid-to-late 2025:

(1) Direct or kinetic violence has significantly declined since late-January 2026.

(2) UXO incidence and casualties have markedly increased in 2026.

For this week, several areas of analytical insight are worth drawing out:

Syria Data Update (March 31-April 7, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:31:34 GMT

A total of 22 violent deaths were recorded across Syria over the past week — 15 caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO), making this the biggest weekly UXO toll seen in Syria since mid-May 2025. The remaining 7 deaths caused by direct kinetic violence marked the third lowest weekly toll in Syria on record, with all record lows having occurred over the past 5 weeks:

2 deaths (March 24-31)
6 deaths (March 3-10)
7 deaths (March 31-April 7 and March 10-17)
8 deaths (March 17-24)

This past week serves to underline two consistent trends emerging from Syria Weekly data in 2026 — that while the overall level of deadly violence in Syria has declined significantly since mid-to-late 2025, (1) direct or kinetic violence has significantly declined since late-January 2026 and (2) UXO incidence and casualties have markedly increased in 2026.

For this week, several areas of analytical insight are worth drawing out:

Syria Data Update (March 24-31, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 19:26:18 GMT

Last week saw the lowest level of violence in Syria in 15 years, while the month of March closed out as the least violent month in Syria in 15 years. As Syria Weekly data has been documenting since August 2025, the level of violence across Syria has been on a downward trend for some time. In fact, deadly violence in Syria declined by 30% between January and August 2025, and then plummeted by 73% in the final third of the year. Notwithstanding a brief period of fighting in Syria’s northeast in January 2026, the months of February and March 2026 have set consecutive record lows in violence, with March seeing a total of 23 people killed in direct acts of violence. That is 60% lower than the February 2026 record low of 58 deaths and 94% lower than the post-Assad average of 356 deaths per month.

Specifically, last week saw a total of:

Syria Data Update (March 17-24, 2026)

Charles Lister — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:30:41 GMT

The overall level of deadly violence over the past week in Syria was the second lowest ever on record, with a total of 12 deaths recorded across the country — 4 (33%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). The 8 non-UXO deaths confirmed across Syria represented the third lowest level ever on record, after the 7 and 6 deaths recorded in the previous two weeks, respectively.

Consequently, March is currently on track to be the least violent month in Syria in the past 15 years.

Of the 12 deaths confirmed across Syria last week, four causes were at play:

Syria Data Update (March 10-17, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 15:31:04 GMT

The overall level of violent deaths across Syria rose last week, with a total of 19 confirmed — compared to the record low of 11 deaths recorded the week prior. This week’s casualty level however, remains considerably below the average noted by Syria Weekly since October 2025, when Syria’s overall level of weekly violence has been on a gradual declining trend.

Most significant and importantly though is the fact that this week’s overall increase in violent deaths was entirely due to:

Syria Data Update (March 3-10, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 12:31:38 GMT

While conflict raged across the Middle East, Syria recorded its lowest level of violence on record over the past week, with a total of 11 deaths confirmed — 5 (45%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). The remaining 6 violent deaths across Syria last week were attributed to:

Syria Data Update (Feb 24-March 3, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 17:01:20 GMT

The overall level of violence across Syria declined back to near-record levels this past week, with a total of 20 violent deaths confirmed — 9 (45%) of which were the result of unexploded ordnance (UXO). This week’s decline in violence followed a brief spike recorded the week prior, when a total of 35 violent deaths were confirmed, 8 (23%) of which were attributed to UXO incidents.

Given the significance of UXO last week in accounting for nearly half of all violent deaths, the 11 non-UXO deaths in Syria represented the 3rd lowest weekly count on record — after 9 from Feb 3-10, 2026 and 10 from Nov 4-11, 2025. It is this non-UXO metric that offers the most analytically significant measurement of directed, or kinetic violence in Syria and in so doing, Syria clearly remains on a path of gradual stabilization.

This past week, 81% of all violent deaths were caused by just two perpetrators:

Syria Data Update (Feb 17-24, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 14:02:58 GMT

The overall level of violence across Syria last week increased notably, with a total of 35 violent deaths confirmed — 8 (23%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). This level of violence represented a doubling of what was seen across Syria the previous week, with 77% of the violence attributable to:

Syria Data Update (Feb 10-17, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 15:55:25 GMT

The overall level of violence across Syria over the past week remained on par with record lows — with a total of 17 deaths confirmed across the country, 6 (35%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). That means the 11 non-UXO deaths recorded last week represented the third lowest level on record — after 9 the week prior (Feb 3-10, 2026) and 10 in the week of Nov 11-18, 2025.

Syria Data Update (February 3-10, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 14:00:51 GMT

The overall level of deadly violence in Syria over the past week remained at more or less the same level as the week prior, with 21 violent deaths confirmed over 7-days. However, and more importantly, 57% of those deaths (12 of 21) were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO), making this past week extremely significant for two reasons:

Syria Data Update (January 27-February 2, 2026)

Charles Lister — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 16:52:53 GMT

As hostilities between government and SDF forces came to an end this past week, the level of violence across Syria sharply declined back to the record low levels seen throughout November-December 2025. In the week of January 27-February 2, a total of 20 violent, conflict-related deaths were confirmed across Syria — 7 (or 35%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance.

That means Syria witnessed 13 non-UXO deaths over the past week, which is the second lowest level ever recorded by Syria Weekly. As was clear in late-2025, Syria’s unresolved territorial issues - the SDF-held northeast and Druze governorate of Suwayda - were always going to be the most potent triggers for a return of significant deadly violence, but absent those, the country more broadly is on a clear path of gradual stabilization. Assuming the SDF’s integration into the state that is now underway continues as planned, there is now a great deal more room for optimism when it comes to Syria’s post-conflict recovery.

Three key data-related takeaways worth highlighting, or underlining are:

Syria Data Update (January 13-27, 2026)

Charles Lister — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 17:11:56 GMT

The overall level of violence in Syria remained high over the past two weeks, due to continued intense violence between the transitional government and the SDF in northeast Syria. A total 101 violent deaths were confirmed in the week of January 13-20 and another 111 deaths in the week of January 20-27. To underline the significance of events in the northeast, 96% (203 of 212) of the confirmed violent deaths over the past two weeks were attributed to Government-SDF hostilities.

As with previous weeks, this also underlines the extent to which violence elsewhere in Syria continues its trend of marked decline — with just 11 violent deaths outside of eastern Aleppo, Deir ez Zour, Raqqa and Hasakeh or otherwise unrelated to government-SDF conflict over a two week period. Remarkably, 8 of those 11 deaths were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO), leaving just 3 non-UXO violent death over 14 days:

One Public Security force operative was shot dead by suspected ISIS militants in a targeted attack in Akhtarin in northern Aleppo on January 14.
One SDF fighter was shot dead in a targeted attack by two ISIS militants on a motorbike in al-Baghouz in eastern Deir ez Zour on January 17.
One MOI Public Security fighter shot dead by a Druze militia sniper in rural western Suwayda on January 24.

Data Update (January 6-13, 2026)

Charles Lister — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 13:55:03 GMT

The overall level of violence spiked in Syria last week, as government forces and the SDF engaged in major hostilities in Aleppo city between January 6-10, with at least 91 people (68 civilians & 23 combatants) confirmed killed there. That eruption of conflict and the potential for it to expand to Aleppo’s eastern countryside is alarming and potentially highly significant as we assess the prospects for Syria’s political transition in 2026.

For a comprehensive look at the past week’s violence in Aleppo, read:

How Damascus & the SDF came to blows in Aleppo — and what might come next

and Monday’s newsletter, containing a ‘SPECIAL’ detailing developments day-by-day.

But notwithstanding the dramatic events in Aleppo, what was equally notable last week was the fact that elsewhere in Syria, deadly conflict incidents almost stopped altogether, with just one fatal incident recorded nationwide over 7 days — in Homs, when unidentified gunmen opened fire on a group of medical workers leaving the al-Kindi Hospital in Homs on the evening of January 8, killing 4. This precipitous decline in deadly violence is an anomaly when placed in the wider context of violence across Syria as measured by Syria Weekly. However, it does come amid a broader trend of substantial de-escalation in late-2025, and on the heels of a near all-time low of violence the week prior (when a total of 15 violent deaths were confirmed: December 30-January 6).

Additional takeaways:

Data Update (December 30, 2025-January 6, 2026)

Charles Lister — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 16:22:34 GMT

The overall level of violence in Syria last week dropped to near record low levels, with just 17 deaths confirmed across the country — 2 (12%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). Only two weeks over the past 13 months have seen lower levels of violence: the 16 deaths between November 25-December 2, 2025 and the 13 deaths between November 4-11, 2025.

All in all, looking back over 2025, the overall decline in the level of violence across Syria is clear, and an extremely important and under-acknowledged trend. From September 2025, deadly violence in Syria has tracked at a third of the level seen throughout the previous 9 months of the transition (December 2024 to August 2025). Much of this improvement was due to the transition of domestic security responsibility from the MOD to MOI, and the steps taken by the MOI to recruit locally; to fuse its activities with the political directorates at the provincial and district levels; and to the campaigns of MOI arrests targeting criminal entities involved in organized crime, terrorism, vigilantism and sectarian violence.

However, despite the significant progress in internal security and stability, Syria’s transition remains existentially challenged by the country’s two unresolved territorial challenges (the SDF-held northeast, and the Druze-majority governorate of Suwayda), the persistence of which also continue to fuel maximalist political demands by minority actors on the Coast. Despite months of intensive U.S. attempts at mediation, little practical progress has been made to resolve either of the northeast or Suwayda files. That creates conditions in which sudden explosions of violence on either front remain possible, if not increasingly likely — as ongoing violence in Aleppo today indicates.

Of the 15 non-UXO deaths last week, two thirds were caused by two things:

Data Update (December 9-30, 2025)

Charles Lister — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:19:48 GMT

The overall level of violence seen across Syria over the past 3 weeks remained on par with the low averages seen since September, but compared to the all-time lows witnessed since November, it marked a notable increase in violence. All in all, a total of 89 violent deaths were confirmed across Syria over the past 3 weeks — 19 in the week of December 9-16; 40 in the week of December 16-23; and 30 in the week of December 23-30.

Most significantly, 46% (41 of 89) of all deaths were attributed to ISIS-related violence — with ISIS attacks responsible for 28 deaths (or 31% of all deaths nationwide) and raids against ISIS conducted by the Syrian government, the SDF and the United States responsible for 13 deaths (or 15%).

Analyzing an ISIS Surge

Data Update (December 2-9, 2025)

Charles Lister — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 16:48:09 GMT

The overall level of violence across Syria last week dropped back to the all-time low levels seen through much of November, with a total of 18 deaths confirmed across 7 days — 2 (11%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO).

The fact that violence and resulting deaths dropped by more than half compared to the prior week would appear to indicate that the previous week had been an anomaly. After all, half of the the 41 deaths recorded last week (Nov 25-Dec 2) — 13 (32%) attributed to an Israeli raid and 9 (22%) to UXO — came through highly unusual incidents. Consequently, on average, Syria has witnessed a sharp decline in the average level of violence and violent deaths nationwide since the beginning of November:

November 4-11: 13 deaths, 3 (23%) by UXO.

November 11-18: 21 deaths, 6 (29%) by UXO.

November 18-25: 16 deaths, 3 (19%) by UXO.

November 25-Dec 2: 41 deaths, 9 (22%) by UXO.

December 2-9: 18 deaths, 2 (11%) by UXO.

These numbers are substantially below where Syria has stood throughout the rest of 2025, with July to October witnessing a weekly average of 30.6 deaths(not including the major violence in Suwayda in mid-July) and mid-March to June seeing a weekly average of 57 deaths.

Key Analysis — ISIS Surges Across Government Areas

Data Update (November 25-December 2)

Charles Lister — Fri, 05 Dec 2025 16:48:55 GMT

The overall level of violence increased significantly last week, with a total of 41 violent deaths recorded over 7 days — 9 (22%) of which were attributed to unexploded ordnance (UXO). Compared to the 16 deaths confirmed last week (3, or 19% of which were caused by UXO), this marks a considerable recent surge in deadly violence.

This increase is almost entirely attributable to three developments unique to the past week:

Data Update (November 18-25)

Charles Lister — Wed, 26 Nov 2025 16:51:24 GMT

The overall level of violence across Syria this past week remained at all-time low levels, with a total of 16 deaths confirmed, 3 (19%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance. That means that the 13 non-UXO deaths recorded across Syria last week represented the second lowest number ever recorded after the 10 non-UXO deaths confirmed between November 4-11.

In fact, November has so far witnessed a significant decline in violence, with an average of 12.6 deaths per week, compared to a rate of 30.6 deaths per week between July and October (not including the major violence in Suwayda in mid-July). Between mid-March and June, the weekly average was 57 deaths per week. This marked decline in overall levels of violence in Syria offers cause for serious optimism — though the upcoming 1yr anniversary celebrations bring with them a risk of violence from those who seek to bring down Syria’s transition, and the country’s as-yet unresolved territorial issues (the SDF-held northeast and the Druze-majority governorate of Suwayda) continue to impose a potential dark cloud over Syria’s stabilization.

Analysis:

Data Update (November 11-18)

Charles Lister — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 13:03:22 GMT

The overall level of violence across Syria over the past week remained at all-time low levels, with a total of 21 deaths recorded — 6 (29%) of which were caused by unexploded ordnance (UXO). That means that the 15 non-UXO deaths confirmed over 7 days represented the second lowest weekly toll ever recorded, following last week’s record low of 10 non-UXO deaths.

Violence across Syria has been declining significantly in recent months, with a weekly nationwide average of 24 non-UXO deaths confirmed since September 1, compared to a weekly average of 56 non-UXO deaths between March and September — not including deaths caused in major violence on the Coast in March or Suwayda in July).

Analysis: